バフェットの言葉
60年の投資思想、
エッセンスだけ。
- 01
バフェット思想の核心は、頭の良さより「気質」。 IQが100を超えたら投資の成果とIQは相関しない、と本人は語っています。能力の輪を知り、他人が貪欲な時に恐れ、恐れている時に貪欲であること——原則そのものはシンプルです。 - 02
巷の「バフェット語録」と違うのは 出所ラベル 。株主への手紙や議会証言で確認できる言葉か、講演・口頭発言か、原典未確認の言い伝えか——色チップで区別しています。 - 03
普通の人への助言は一貫して インデックス投資 。自身の遺言でも、資産の90%をインデックスファンドに、と指示しています。
グレアムから、
マンガーへ。
グレアム『賢明なる投資家』
フィッシャー『成長株発掘法』
See's Candies買収 ― 質への転換
株主への手紙 ― 「私は覚えの遅い生徒だった」
マンガーへの追悼
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Charlie understood this early; I was a slow learner."
「シケモク」投資からの卒業
"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre."
Munger told him in 1965 to "add to it wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices and give up buying fair businesses at wonderful prices," and thereafter "jerked me back to sanity when my old habits surfaced."
7つの原則、
1つずつ。
(a) 能力の輪 Circle of Competence
"The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."
(d) ミスター・マーケットMr. Market
"Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. … Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. … it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence."
(e) 長期保有 「永遠」の限定つき
理念 好む保有期間は『永遠』
1996年手紙: 「10年間持ち続ける気がない株なら、10分間だって持とうと考えるべきではない」
"If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes."1988年手紙: 「我々の好む保有期間は『永遠』だ」
"our favorite holding period is forever."
現実 「永遠」には限定もある
2016年手紙: 「永遠と約束はしない」 と自ら限定しました。 2020年5月、コロナ禍による需要蒸発を受け、保有していた 航空株4銘柄(アメリカン・デルタ・サウスウエスト・ユナイテッド)を全て売却 。「あの事業について私は間違っていた。それは4人の優れたCEOのせいでは全くない何かによるものだった」
"It turned out I was wrong about that business because of something that was not in any way the fault of four excellent CEOs."
(h) 貪欲と恐怖 Fear & Greed
"they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
(i) 評判と新聞テスト Reputation
"Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding. Lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless."
"In looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. But if they don't have the first, the other two will kill you."
"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."
(f) 20穴パンチカード Punch Card
"I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you'd punched through the card, you couldn't make any more investments at all."
(g) 気質がIQに勝る Temperament > IQ
"Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing."
普通の人への
結論は、ひとつ。
"Both large and small investors should stick with low-cost index funds."
"When trillions of dollars are managed by Wall Streeters charging high fees, it will usually be the managers who reap outsized profits, not the clients."
プロテジェの賭け ― 10年間、100万ドルを賭けた勝負
分散は、
「知らない」への保険。
"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."
「
相棒が、
思想を変えた。
逆から考えよ、複数の学問を掛け合わせよ
"You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models."
"Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome."
"It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
"Charlie was the 'architect' of the present Berkshire, and I acted as the 'general contractor' to carry out the day-by-day construction of his vision."
"In a way his relationship with me was part older brother, part loving father."
日本の商社に見た、
“バークシャーらしさ”。
"I am delighted to have Berkshire Hathaway participate in the future of Japan and the five companies we have chosen for investment."
2025年末の数値(年次報告書ベース)
"in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself"
円建て社債という、為替中立の工夫
静かに、
去っていく。
総会で退任を表明
「最後の手紙」― going quiet
CEO退任
アベル氏、初の株主への手紙
「
"We maintain a fortress-like balance sheet, ensuring Berkshire's foundation is never compromised. We preserve this financial strength by using debt sparingly and prudently."
"Tomorrow, we're having a board meeting of Berkshire, and we have 11 directors. Two of the directors, who are my children, Howie and Susie, know of what I'm going to talk about there. The rest of them, this will come as news to, but I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year end."
"I have no intention—zero—of selling one share of Berkshire Hathaway. … The decision to keep every share is an economic decision because I think the prospects of Berkshire will be better under Greg's management than mine."
"I will no longer be writing Berkshire's annual report or talking endlessly at the annual meeting. As the British would say, I'm 'going quiet.' Sort of."
"He is a great manager, a tireless worker and an honest communicator."
"I can't think of a CEO, a management consultant, an academic, a member of government—you name it—that I would select over Greg to handle your savings and mine."
"Kindness is costless but also priceless."
"Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it."
失敗も、
自分の言葉で語る。
Dexter Shoe
"I gave Berkshire stock to the sellers of Dexter rather than cash, and the shares I used for the purchase are now worth about $5.7 billion. … To date, Dexter is the worst deal that I've made."
"The most gruesome was Dexter Shoe. … As a financial disaster, this one deserves a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records."
バークシャー・ハサウェイ自体
"The dumbest stock I ever bought was—drum roll here—Berkshire Hathaway."
USエア
USエア
"my analysis of USAir's business was both superficial and wrong."
"Now if I get the urge to invest in airlines, I call an 800 number, and I say: 'Hello, my name is Warren, and I'm an air-o-holic.'"
ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips
"Without urging from Charlie or anyone else, I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. … the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."
Tesco
Tesco(テスコ)
"I made a big mistake with this investment by dawdling. … Charlie calls this sort of behavior 'thumb-sucking.'"
直近10年の劣後と「規模の限界」
"However, a decade or two from now, there will be many companies that have done better than Berkshire; our size takes its toll."
過ちを正すことについて
"The cardinal sin is delaying the correction of mistakes or what Charlie Munger called 'thumb-sucking.'"
"Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes—learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve."
この5冊から、
始めてみる。
『バフェットからの手紙』
『賢明なる投資家』
ベンジャミン・グレアム
『スノーボール』
アリス・シュローダー
『バフェットの法則』
ロバート・ハグストローム
『完全なる投資家の頭の中』
トレン・グリフィン